Long kicked off Transocean's quarterly conference call with a note
of optimism on the deepwater market. Yes, the company's seen bidding
activity sputter since the revenue backlog peaked back in the third
quarter of 2008, but the dayrates on this year's three fixtures,
falling in the mid-$500,000 to low-$600,000 range, are still
historically strong. It's exactly those sorts of long-term contracted
rig rates that provide Transocean a fat $17.4 billion free cash-flow
backlog, which now exceeds total debt by $4 billion.
Transocean has five new rigs going to work this year for supermajors including Chevron (NYSE: CVX), StatoilHydro (NYSE: STO), and BP (NYSE: BP). Not to beat a dead Thunder Horse, but these are A-list clients. Those rigs will deliver a huge stream of cash next year, when another five rigs hit the water.
Transocean is riding a comfortable wave compared to largely mid- and shallow-water oriented drillers such as Atwood Oceanics (NYSE: ATW) and Ensco International
(NYSE: ESV). Given the softness emerging in those markets, both of
those companies have to be pretty happy they've ordered up some
deepwater rigs of their own -- even though Atwood is paying a relatively steep $750 million for its second semisubmersible.
At the end of the day, the Long view largely conforms with my own: Transocean, like the deepwater-levered Pride International (NYSE: PDE), has nothing treacherous standing in its path.
Related Foolishness:
suddenly Swiss.You can't ignore this Brazilian bruiser.This driller's still looking regal.
© 2009 UCLICK, L.L.C.
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