Scientists consider influenza pandemics

Bethesda, Md. -- U.S. government scientists have issued a commentary about why predicting the next influenza pandemic is difficult and how scientists can best prepare.

The National Institutes of Health researchers say two things are certain about an influenza pandemic: there will be one someday, but nobody can predict when.

The NIH scientists analyzed the significance of the highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1, which has spread among bird populations and infected hundreds of humans during the past decade. In preparing for the next influenza pandemic, however, the authors argue researchers and public health officials should not focus solely on H5N1 strains, since the next pandemic might be caused by a different influenza virus.

Instead, the NIH says research efforts should go beyond H5N1 and focus broadly on influenza viruses. Such efforts, the NIH said, could also help combat seasonal influenza, which is a major public health concern in the United States where it accounts for an estimated 36,000 deaths and 200,000 hospitalizations each year.

The commentary appears in the current issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Copyright 2007 United Press International.