U.S. flu control strategies criticized

Los Angeles -- U.S. scientists have determined government policies designed to control the spread of an influenza pandemic are insufficient. University of California-Los Angeles researcher Professor Sally Blower, along with postdoctoral fellows Romulus Breban and Raffaele Vardavas, used mathematical modeling to determine current health policy based on voluntary vaccination is not adequate.

University of California-Los Angeles researcher Professor Sally Blower, along with postdoctoral fellows Romulus Breban and Raffaele Vardavas, used mathematical modeling to determine current health policy based on voluntary vaccination is not adequate.

While other models have determined what proportion of the population would need to be vaccinated to prevent a pandemic, none showed whether that critical coverage could actually be achieved.

Blower and her group used people's attitudes toward seasonal influenza to construct their model.

"We assume that the decision of each individual is based upon self-interest, that people wish to avoid coming down with the flu, preferably without having to vaccinate," said Breban.

It is the adaptive decision-making by the individual, the researchers said, that might be an important and previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology.

The study is to be published in the journal PLoS Computational Biology and is currently available online.

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