Stop me if you've heard this one. But the
mustbuy is ... the next
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL),
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN),
eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY), and
Baidu.com (Nasdaq: BIDU), all rolled into
That's a pitch I'm sure you've heard some semblance of at cocktail
parties, golf outings, weddings, and, of course, on the Internet.
And it's a pretty appealing pitch. After all, Apple, Amazon, eBay,
and Baidu are some of the stock market's great success stories. These
companies have earned early investors mind-boggling returns over short
and long periods of time.
The secrets of success
So the question is: Does that one stock you must buy exist? Of course it does. But can you find it? That's a different matter.
Here, however, is a litmus test to gauge every stock tip you come
across. Simply ask: Does this company bear any resemblance at all to
Apple, Amazon, eBay, or Baidu before they were big names?
That's not to say that one stock will be a tech superstar.
Instead, Apple, Amazon, eBay, and Baidu all share a set of remarkable
traits that characterized them when their amazing runs began. All were:
If the next stock pitched to you lacks these traits, you're probably better off passing.
A case study
Consider, for example, the cases of Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) and Altera (Nasdaq: ALTR) -- two tech plays touted to me at cocktail parties, golf outings, weddings, and, of course, on the Internet.
Are they small? No. Both are $6 billion companies.
Are they led by dedicated founders? No. Both Derrick Meyer and John
Daane came from other companies. Neither owns a significant percentage
of his company's shares.
Are they fiscally conservative? Yes and no. While Altera has a
strong balance sheet and a business that generates healthy cash flow,
AMD -- due to the capital intensive nature of its business and
competition with Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) -- swung to an operating loss in 2007 and 2008, and the company continues to spend significantly on capital expenditures.
Do they have wide market opportunities? It gets a little cloudy
here. While both companies have opportunities to grab greater market
share, they both operate in extremely competitive industries. Whatever
gains they make will be hard-fought and may not last.
The Foolish final word
not here to be negative about either AMD or Altera. Both could make for
good investments going forward. I don't, however, think either one has
the core traits that made companies like Apple, Amazon, eBay, and Baidu
such incredible investments and that we look for at our Motley Fool Hidden Gems small-cap investing service.
Again, we believe that tomorrow's big winners will start off:
© 2009 UCLICK L.L.C.