Here We Go Again With Tysabri

by Brian Orelli - July 1, 2009 - 2 comments

The number of patients on Biogen Idec's (Nasdaq: BIIB) and Elan's (NYSE: ELN) multiple sclerosis drug, Tysabri, that have gotten progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) since the drug was reintroduced to the market has reached double digits.

Late Friday, Biogen said that a tenth case of PML had been
discovered. The headlines announced the dire news -- PML is a
life-threatening brain infection -- and Biogen's stock fell yesterday,
as it's done almost every time before.

Case No.	Date Reported	Stock Price Increase/ (Decrease) After Report
1,2	July 31, 2008	(28.3%)
3	Oct 29, 2008	(3.9%)
4	Dec 15, 2008	(1.7%)
5	Feb 6, 2009	(1.5%)
6	April 17, 2009	(3.5%)
7	May 22, 2009	1.7%
8	June 12, 2009	(2.3%)
9	June 19, 2009	(5%)
10	June 26, 2009	(5.5%)

Source: News reports and Yahoo! Finance.

While the table makes it look like Biogen has been in a steady
decline, the stock is actually trading just a little lower than it was
after the first two cases were reported some 11 months ago. That's not
something that would make Carl Icahn proud, but it's nothing to be alarmed about. Maybe.

Look at that table again and you'll see that the last three reports
have come in over the last three weeks and all three patients had been
on Tysabri for at least 30 months. It's too early to tell, but if
extended exposure to Tysabri increases the likelihood of developing
PML, patients may switch to other multiple sclerosis medications like Teva Pharmaceutical's (Nasdaq: TEVA) Copaxone, or Rebif from EMD Serono and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), or start taking drug holidays. Both events would lower sales.

There's no way for Biogen and Elan to lower the incidence of PML,
but they're not helpless in this situation. If they can make PML into a
manageable disease -- they're working on ways to both diagnose it early and treat it -- then the side effect should be less of a worry for patients.

Companies in this news:

Pfizer

Last edited by harsheeb on Wed, 07/01/2009 - 09:49 | Write to author: Brian Orelli |

ha!

Submitted by trrish (not verified) on Thu, 07/02/2009 - 20:12. *

Dear previous commenter,

I've been on Tysabri for two years and have been following the Google alerts for at least that long. You need to consider the publication that you are reading this report in, first of all. Second, one of the many things I've learned over 11 years I've been diagnosed with MS is that, for the pharmaceutical industry, it's all about the price of the stock. It is the ultimate reason why the drugs are developed. While there are no doubt some impassioned researchers who do care about the patients, it's not the companie's focus. For better or worse, that's capitalism.

Poor, poor stock ;-<

Submitted by JM (not verified) on Wed, 07/01/2009 - 16:19. *

So there are more cases of PML with Tysabri and the concern of this article is the marketability of the drug?

Patients and their families who not only have MS, now have a deadly brain infection and the concern expressed above is that the company has to work to "both diagnose it early and treat it" so that the product and its stock are more valuable?

This article is the epitome of uncompassion.